WASHINGTON D.C. – For the last few months, politicians and pundits have been quick to pounce on President Trump for his approval ratings, which have been relatively low as a result of fallout from the Coronavirus pandemic, as have his polling numbers against former Vice President Joe Biden in the race for the White House. New data indicates that those numbers are beginning to rebound.
When President Trump kicked off his re-election campaign in June of 2019, FiveThirtyEight had his approval rating hovering at 42% for the month. Since then, the lowest his number has dropped was 40%.
However, the stock market is beginning its rebound under his leadership, and the United States Mexico Canada Agreement, President Trump’s replacement for the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, went into effect. As the good news keeps coming in for the President, his poll numbers have risen as well.
A week ago, Rasmussen had President Trump down ten points to Biden, but now the former Vice President is leading by only a slim three points in the same poll, near the margin of error.
In addition, the poll shows that President Trump has more support with Republicans than Biden has with Democrats, highlighting the former Vice President’s struggle with appealing to the more progressive wing of his party.
In 2016, polls were notoriously generous towards the Democrat nominee, Secretary Hillary Clinton, with the polling average showing that Donald Trump would capture just 37.1% of the popular vote in the state. Then-candidate Trump ended up receiving nearly 45% of the vote in the state, and won Maine’s Second Congressional District by 10 points.
Recently, Biden has rolled out his new climate plan, a full on embrace of the Green New Deal championed by Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). That basket of policies could cost Biden in Maine, as Green New Deal policies were widely panned in rural states like Maine. Under the Green New Deal, Mainers, especially those in rural areas or with lower incomes would see the cost of traveling to work or heating their homes become dangerously expensive.
To make Biden’s troubles worse, to win the far-left’s vote, he is claiming that he would be the “most progressive” President in history. Such claims could alienate the more moderate wing of his party and unaffiliated voters, who could be turned off by such rhetoric.
While Biden alienates his voters, the Rasmussen poll showed that President Trump has cut the gap among independent voters by half as well, with Biden falling 6 points among those surveyed in just a week.
One thing can be certain, every day between now and election day is going to be interesting and consequential as President Trump seeks re-election.